Party strategists have identified some of the most competitive
state House and Senate races in November. Democrats are expected
to keep control of both chambers, but the election could influence
internal leadership and determine which party has momentum.
State Senate
Open seats
• Senate District 24 (Kailua, Kane'ohe).
Senate researcher Keoki Leong (R) and Jill Tokuda (D), the governmental
affairs director for a recycling company, square off in a district
that trends Republican but could be intensely competitive.
Status: Leans Republican.
• Senate District 19 (Kapolei, Makakilo). Former
Honolulu City Councilman Mike Gabbard (R) has done solid field
work in the district for months and has an advantage in name
recognition over retired police captain George Yamamoto (D).
Status: Leans Republican.
Current: Democrats, 20; Republicans, 5.
Outlook: Republicans could pick up a seat but
the drama will be over who Democrats choose as president.
State House
Incumbents at risk:
• House District 44 (Nanakuli, Honokai Hale). Rep.
Michael Kahikina (D) barely held off legislative aide Karen Awana
(R) in 2002 and 2004 and faces her again.
Status: Leans Democrat.
• House District 46 (Kahuku, North Shore, Schofield).
Rep. Michael Magaoay (D) narrowly beat Neighborhood Board member
Carol Philips (R) in 2002 and 2004, and they have another rematch.
Status: Leans Democrat.
• House District 40 (Makakilo, Kapolei, Royal Kunia).
Rep. Mark Moses (R) earned more votes in the primary than any
House Republican candidate in the state. But Democrats believe
attorney Sharon Har (D) could be formidable in this growing district.
Status: Leans Republican.
• House District 27 (Liliha, Pu'unui). Rep. Corinne
Ching (R) is a frequent target in a district friendly to Democrats.
Attorney and Neighborhood Board member Sesnita Moepono (D) could
make it close.
Status: Leans Republican.
• House District 23 (Waikiki, Ala Moana, Kaka'ako).
Rep. Anne Stevens (R) was appointed by the governor and barely
escaped the primary in a district favorable to Republicans. Party
activist Tom Brower (D) has been campaigning since January.
Status: Leans Republican.
• House District 13 (E. Maui, Moloka'i, Lana'i). Rep.
Mele Carroll (D) was appointed by the governor and faces retired
fire chief and former state Rep. Ron Davis (R) in a potential
swing district.
Status: Leans Democrat.
• House District 28 (Iwilei, Downtown, Makiki).
Rep. Bev Harbin (D), a controversial appointee, lost in the primary,
setting up attorney and legislative aide Karl Rhoads (D) against
computer consultant and legislative aide Collin Wong (R). Wong
narrowly lost to former state Rep. Ken Hiraki in 2004.
Status: Tossup.
• House District 10 (W. Maui). Rep. Kam Tanaka (D)
fell in the primary. Angus McKelvey (D), an executive for a publishing
and graphics firm, is up against Ben Azman (R), a family physician,
in this potential swing district.
Status: Tossup.
Open seats:
• House District 4 (Puna). Corrections officer Faye
Hanohano (D) faces safety coordinator Brian Jordan (R) in a fast-growing
district that still trends Democrat.
Status: Leans Democrat.
• House District 11 (S. Maui). AARP activist Tony
Fisher (R) and nonprofit director Joe Bertram III (D) are competing
in a district favorable to Republicans.
Status: Tossup.
• House District 15 (Lihu'e, Koloa). Kaua'i County
Councilman James Tokioka (D) faces architect Ron Agor (R) in a
district favorable to Democrats.
Status: Tossup.
• House District 16 (Po'ipu, Waimea, Ni'ihau). Planning
coordinator Roland Sagum III (D) and vacation counselor JoAnne
Georgi (R) are the candidates in a district that trends Democrat.
Status: Tossup.
• House District 17 (Hawai'i Kai, Kalama Valley).
Peace Corps volunteer and former state Rep. Gene Ward (R) is out
for a comeback against legal consultant A.J. Halagao (D) in bedrock
GOP territory.
Status: Leans Republican.
• House District
25 (Makiki, Tantalus). Senate attorney Della Belatti
(D) is up against state policy analyst Tracy Okubo (R) in a district
both parties have circled as a target.
Status: Tossup.
• House District 29 (Kalihi,
Sand Island). Legislative aide Joey Manahan (D) and Ken
Harding (R) are the candidates in an urban district that favors
Democrats.
Status: Leans Democrat.
• House District
30 (Moanalua, Kalihi Valley, 'Alewa). Legislative aide
John Mizuno (D) faces state business information director Rick
Manayan (R) in a district where both parties are hopeful.
Status: Tossup.
Current: Democrats,
41; Republicans, 10.
Outlook: Democrats
have more open territory to defend, but voter turnout could decide
which party makes gains.. |
